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* Atleast Project Title is Required.
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Project No. |
EPWG 04 2011A
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Project Title |
A Training Course on Quantitative Precipitation Estimation/Forecasting (QPE/QPF)
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Project Status |
Completed Project
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Publication (if any) |
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Fund Account |
APEC Support Fund
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Sub-fund |
ASF: General Fund
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Project Year |
2011
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Project Session |
Session 2
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APEC Funding |
113,000
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Co-funding Amount |
32,000
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Total Project Value |
145,000
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Sponsoring Forum |
Emergency Preparedness Working Group (EPWG)
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Topics |
Emergency Preparedness
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Committee |
SOM Steering Committee on Economic and Technical Cooperation (SCE)
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Other Fora Involved |
Not Applicable / Other
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Other Non-APEC Stakeholders Involved |
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Proposing Economy(ies) |
Philippines
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Co-Sponsoring Economies |
Australia; Indonesia; Chinese Taipei
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Expected Start Date |
08/07/2011
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Expected Completion Date |
31/12/2012
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Project Proponent Name 1 |
Dr. Cynthia P. Celebre
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Job Title 1 |
Director
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Organization 1 |
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Department of Science and Technology (DOST)
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Postal Address 1 |
Science Garden Complex, Agham Road, Diliman , Quezon City, Philippines 1100
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Telephone 1 |
(632) 434-2675
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Fax 1 |
(632) 434 2675
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Email 1 |
cynthia_celebre@yahoo.com
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Project Proponent Name 2 |
Not Applicable
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Job Title 2 |
Not Applicable
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Organization 2 |
Not Applicable
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Postal Address 2 |
Not Applicable
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Telephone 2 |
Not Applicable
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Fax 2 |
Not Applicable
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Email 2 |
Not Applicable
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Declaration |
Not Applicable
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Project Summary |
A four-day training course that will focus on the quantitative assessment of the amount of precipitation brought about by the occurrence of typhoons and heavy rainfall over a predicted area will be conducted in Manila in the later part of November or in early December 2011. Experts from APEC member economies will be invited to act as resource speakers while active members of the region will be encouraged to participate in the discussions, sharing of best practices, case studies, practical exercises, and an evaluation of the activity.
The course is designed for weather forecasters, hydrologists, and water management officials. These are the people who are in the front line during the incidence of extreme climatic events and are mandated to prepare recommendations on disaster preparedness.
The beneficiaries of the activity are the decision-makers of agencies involved in weather forecasting, disaster and emergency preparedness, water and power management, health, environment, infrastructure, social work, tourism and business. The civil society and the private sector from member economies and other investment stakeholders will also benefit from the project.
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Relevance |
This project is the first technical activity of its kind that seeks funding through the APEC Support Fund (ASF), which assists projects that address the capacity building needs of APEC’s developing economies. The project aims to specifically realize the APEC Action Plan on Human Security, which is covered by the ASF.
The Quantitative Precipitation Estimation/Forecasting (QPE/QPF) is an important disaster management and emergency preparedness tool being used by national weather offices to quantitatively assess the expected amount and impact of rainfall accumulated over a specified time and over a particular area. The tool is very important during the occurrences of heavy rainfall brought about by typhoons and monsoons. Weather forecasters, hydrologists and water management officers from many APEC economies, particularly those from developing ones, do not have enough technical knowledge on the application of the tool.
Business, trade and investment sectors depend on information provided by weather forecast agencies in making capital and investment decisions. Huge business losses can be avoided or reduced to a minimum if decision-makers have the right and timely information. Most affected by natural disasters are small and medium enterprises that do not have enough resources to evacuate their goods and services. By training and equipping the above-mentioned participants with the right skills, techniques and technologies, they can provide more accurate and timely weather forecasts, which is very important for business. The information will help them decide on how to deal with weather changes in the short-run, and help them make investment decisions in the long-run.
The implementation of the course will therefore contribute largely to making the population of various economies in the APEC region, particularly those frequently experiencing typhoon and monsoon rains, better prepared for and protected from natural disasters brought about by these incidents. Business facilites, goods and services can also be protected from any harm caused by these extreme climatic events.
The flash floods, flooding and landslide/mud slide which are now being experienced by various APEC economies are the result of these disastrous events that cause loss of lives and damage to properties. During these events, children, people of old age and women are the most affected.
In the case of predicted occurrence of El Niño event that greatly affects agriculture, health and power sectors, the project will also be useful to water and power management officials because they can budget the water their watersheds and river basins will receive during the rainy season. This may seem a simple decision but if forecasters do not have the capability to prepare accurate and timely information, then business persons, traders, and investors will also not be able to make the right decision to protect their interests.
It is therefore very important and urgent that government officials, particularly the decision-makers be informed at an early lead time, to enable them to conduct emergency preparedness. The knowledge that will be gained in the project will be very useful in flood and water disaster management where practical experiences in volunteer management and mobilization can also be utilized.
The project will also give opportunity for the use of state-of-the art tools such as radars, satellite images and high performance computing system brought about by technology and innovation because the data from these tools will be used by the technical experts in conducting the activities.
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Objectives |
a) To enhance capacity and provide updated skills and information to weather forecasters, hydrologists and water management officials, especially in the developing member economies, on the scientific method of conducting quantitative assessment of the amount of incoming heavy rainfall. The purpose is to improve the knowledge of human resources and upgrade the institutional capacity in the aforementioned field, particularly those from developing member economies who need more technical knowledge on the application of the tool.
b) To evaluate the interpretation and application of the methods on quantitative precipitation forecasting/estimation presently being utilized by the participants during the experience sharing. The review will allow all participating members with the help of the experts, to determine the strengths and weaknesses of the process. The use and interpretation of radar data will also be discussed during the course, which are the vital source of information in the conduct of the rainfall assessment. At the end of the course, the participants are expected to have gained knowledge and better understanding on the current practices within the region, including radar data analysis.
c) To develop linkage and cooperation among participating member economies to ensure the continued updating of the learned technique. The training course will serve as a forum where a cooperation, particularly in the conduct of research activities or case studies will be encouraged so that participants will have a maintained learning process.
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Alignment |
The training course is aligned with the 2010 Yokohama Declaration where APEC Leaders committed member economies to strengthen their resilience and capacity to manage emergencies and natural disasters. They stated that APEC economies’ “capacity to minimize natural and human risks to economic activity should be enhanced and a secure and resilient economic environment should be achieved.” Leaders instructed officials to develop practical disaster risk management mechanisms to strengthen the ability of our economies to manage emergencies and natural disasters.
The activity likewise supports the APEC growth strategy on secure growth, which seeks to protect the region’s citizens’ economic and physical well-being and to provide the secure environment necessary for economic activity. In preparing for emergencies and natural disasters, APEC Leaders stated that “APEC will help member economies to better understand disasters’ economic and social costs, which is one of the outcomes of the course. APEC will identify gaps in disaster risk reduction approaches in the region and develop practical mechanisms to maximize business and community resilience, bearing in mind the Hyogo Framework for Action while encouraging the use of ICTS.”
Moreover, the project also allies with the priorities set by the Third APEC Ministers Conference on Regional Science and Technology Cooperation in Mexico where the mitigation of natural disasters associated with unusual weather is among its priorities. Lastly, the course responds with the APEC Leaders Declaration of 2009 in Singapore which accentuates that “future (sustainable) growth must be compatible with global efforts to protect the environment and mitigate climate change.”
Through the implementation of this project, APEC will have a new tool that will help realize its goal of ensuring the economic and physical well-being of the private sector and civil society within the region. The project will:
· move forward and build on particular work of various current APEC projects
and activities
· provide an important contribution to the emergency preparedness agenda of
APEC by aiming to contribute to the reduction of casualties and losses
brought about by typhoon and heavy rainfall
· enable APEC members to bring a distinctive broad spectrum of experiences
and interpretation to the discussion of the subject matter of the proposed
project.
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TILF/ASF Justification |
Many of the weather forecasters and hydrologists of APEC developing economies need support on how to improve their knowledge on weather forecasting, particularly on rainfall events. In addition, water management has also been a problem in most of these economies.
The project is planned to support the capacity building needs of APEC developing economies by enhancing their knowledge and equipping them with the appropriate skills and techniques that will allow them to provide useful, more accurate and timely weather forecasts. Their improved weather forecasts will result to longer lead time for disaster preparedness and increased reliability that will facilitate the timely dissemination of potentially life-saving information to emergency management agencies and the general public. Such development will not only help improve their plans on disaster management but will likewise assist their business, trade and investment sectors to make sound decisions that may lead to improved economic condition.
Water is one of the most important resources of life on Earth. The success in water management depends largely on accurate knowledge of the resources available. Hence, through the knowledge that they will gain in this activity, the participants from APEC developing countries, especially those who belong to the water management group, can give recommendations to their decision-makers on how to budget their water supply that are utilized for drinking, irrigation and power, particularly during drought periods or El Nino events.
Participants, especially those from developing economies will be requested to share the best method that they utilize in the performance of the proposed topic. Linkage and collaboration particularly in the conduct of case studies will be encouraged during the course that will help them improve their craft and to keep abreast with the new developments.
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Beneficiaries and Outputs |
APEC government officials involved in weather forecasting, emergency preparedness, water and power management, agriculture, social work, health, infrastructure, tourism, business and other investment stakeholders are the main beneficiaries of this project. Practitioners and the entire private sector and civil society of the APEC economies will likewise be benefitted. As was done in Manila in January 2010, an open approach will engaged to invite participation also from the host country.
The participants of the course are the direct recipients of the benefits as they learn from the resource speakers the best method to assess the amount of rainfall being received by an area through the quantitative precipitation estimation/forecasting. Through the enhancement of their understanding and interpretation of the radar data, the constituents of the APEC economy will be assured of a better and timely weather forecast.
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Dissemination |
A number of quantitative precipitation forecasting/estimation tools and reference aids will be provided as training materials for the participants. These training materials will be made available in the form of presentations, background materials and case studies. The final report of the course and the consolidated evaluation of the participants will also be included.
The course output including the materials will be provided to immediate beneficiaries, speakers’ organizations, EPWG members, APEC official observers and other appropriate fora upon requests or suggestions. The distribution will be in the form of CDs, in reference to APEC Publication Guidelines and copyrights or through the websites of APEC and EPWG. Further dissemination will be discussed by EPWG.
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Gender |
The participation of women will be encouraged in the planning and in all the other stages of the implementation of this project. This also includes their participation as speakers and participants. The project overseer is a woman and her team is composed of several women.
The project overseer will ensure that the project is implemented in such a way that it will be sensitive to gender considerations and both men and women will benefit and does not put women in a detrimental status. The overseer will keenly sought for gender balance in the selection of speakers and will encourage speakers to support the APEC’S Guide on Gender Criteria for APEC Project proposals. The member economies will be reminded to promote the project’s objectives on gender equality. The same process will also be applied in the selection of participants. The project overseer gives assurance that the evaluation forms that will be used for the course will include information about gender in order to permit disaggregation of project assessment data.
The result of the training course will be distributed to both sexes. The project seeks to enhance skills and capabilities among decision-makers and government officials regardless of their gender.
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Work Plan |
The participation of women will be encouraged in the planning and in all the other stages of the implementation of this project. This also includes their participation as speakers and participants. The project overseer is a woman and her team is composed of several women.
The project overseer will ensure that the project is implemented in such a way that it will be sensitive to gender considerations and both men and women will benefit and does not put women in a detrimental status. The overseer will keenly sought for gender balance in the selection of speakers and will encourage speakers to support the APEC’S Guide on Gender Criteria for APEC Project proposals. The member economies will be reminded to promote the project’s objectives on gender equality. The same process will also be applied in the selection of participants. The project overseer gives assurance that the evaluation forms that will be used for the course will include information about gender in order to permit disaggregation of project assessment data.
The result of the training course will be distributed to both sexes. The project seeks to enhance skills and capabilities among decision-makers and government officials regardless of their gender.
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Risks |
The training course with the specified technical topic is the first project that will be conducted by APEC through the EPWG. To maximize the benefits derived from this activity, the project overseer will keep in close contact with APEC Secretariat and experts in the field of study. In addition, inasmuch as the project overseer is from a an APEC economy, which is within the typhoon path, thus frequently experiences heavy rainfall, feedbacks from the country’s weather forecasters, hydrologists and water managers will be sought for to ensure that the content of the course is very relevant and timely.
The time-constraints in the project preparation will be alleviated by engaging resource speakers with proven records of quality outputs and timely deliveries at the early stage of the training course preparation. Considering that the topic is very timely and many member economies have experienced the calamities caused by these natural hazards, many are expected to participate. To make certain that suitable representatives will take part, an advance circulation (middle of June) of the course information will be disseminated.
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Monitoring and Evaluation |
At the end of the activity, participants will be requested to complete evaluation forms that will measure the quality and usefulness of the content of the course. With regards to the objectives of the project, its results will be measured in a longer term. The knowledge and understanding of the lessons that were imparted to the participants can be gauged through their utilization in the improvement of the member economies’ disaster and water management under the specified field.
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Linkages |
The project is being developed and will be implemented in coordination with ACTS headquarters and ACTS Manila Office.
This project builds on the recommendations made during the Science Advisory Committee (SAC) Meeting in the APEC Research Center for Typhoon and Society (ACTS) in Chinese Taipei as well as in the APEC Science Symposium 2009 by APEC Climate Center (ACC) in Busan, Korea.
The SAC meeting of ACTS emphasized the importance of conducting better research by the Center that could serve as a tool in saving lives and properties while the APEC Science Symposium 2009 noted the importance of climate information for emergency preparedness. The participants of this training course can therefore use their knowledge as a means to conduct researches or case studies that may lead to improved weather forecasts in the field of rainfall estimation/forecasting.
It also put together and carries forward the work of various APEC projects and activities in the area of disaster and emergency preparedness. In January 2010, the Asia-Pacific Typhoon Workshop was held in Manila, Philippines in collaboration with Chinese Taipei. The workshop was conducted in response to the increasingly large damage brought about by typhoons to the Asia-Pacific region and to seek a course of action that will contribute to the reduction of these losses. On 11-13 April 2011, ACTS conducted the Asia Pacific Typhoon Symposium in Taipei that focused on typhoon, heavy rain and society. The most recent activity “1st ACTS Workshop 2011,” was conducted in Cebu, Philippines in May 2011, which is also a partnership between ACTS headquarters in Taipei and ACTS Manila office. The theme of the workshop is “Management of Typhoon and Heavy-Rainfall Related Disasters.”
The above-mentioned projects and activities have produced important and valuable works and also provided useful capacity building in the area of damages caused by typhoons including ways and means to reduce the damage. The discussions during the above fora have shown that there is a need to conduct a course that will provide a tool to weather forecasters, hydrologists and water management officers on how to quantitatively assess the amount of heavy rainfall.
The current project is consequently proposed to specifically provide knowledge on the use of tool that will help assess the amount of rainfall brought about by typhoon and heavy rainfall. It will focus on dedicated group of representatives from APEC economies, particularly those from developing member economies, with the hope to inject scientific and technical discussions and collaboration on the matter. The damages brought about by these natural disasters can therefore be reduced through proper application of the gained learning.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized agency of the United Nations involved in the state and behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere conducted the 3rd International Conference on Quantitative Precipitation Estimation/Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting and Hydrologyi (QPE/QPF III) in Nanjing, China. It aims to improve QPF capabilities and advance the use of these fields in hydrological predictions with emphasis on high impact events.
The project has no potential risks of duplicating the WMO activity since it will specifically train the participants on how to use the QPE/QPF tool. Hands-on activities will be conducted to allow them to gain experience on the learned knowledge. Instead of duplicating, it will compliment one another because by enhancing the knowledge of the weather forecasters, hydrologists and water management officers, these people could become researchers and may become participants of their future conferences and in turn be updated on new developments about the tool.
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As mentioned, the successful implementation of the project will enable APEC to realize its goal of ensuring the economic and physical well-being of the private sector and civil society within the region. In addition to the above consideration, APEC is the best source of fund for this activity because it will provide an important contribution to the emergency preparedness agenda of APEC. It will also move forward and build particular work of various APEC projects and activities. Lastly, since APEC membership is composed of regionally and politically diverse cases of emergency preparedness scheme at various levels of development, the training course will allow APEC members to bring a distinctive broad spectrum of experiences and interpretation to the discussion of the subject matter of the proposed project.
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Sustainability |
The training course will enhance the capacity and provide updated skills and information to weather forecasters, hydrologists and water management officials, especially in the developing member economies, on the scientific method of conducting quantitative assessment of the amount of incoming heavy rainfall. The specific objective of the course is to improve the knowledge of human resources and upgrade the institutional capacity in the aforementioned field. The course will also allow the participants to gain knowledge and understanding on the current practices on the subject matter within the APEC region.
The training course will serve as a forum where cooperation, particularly in the conduct of research activities or case studies will be encouraged so that participants will have a maintained learning process. The participants will not only use such knowledge and expertise in their work assignments but also share them with their co-workers. The EPWG and ACTS will continue to discuss the subject of the project as one of its continued priorities, particularly on how to focus on future capacity building needs of member economies.
Lastly, the final report of the course together with the training materials will be shared to the participants and made available online on the APEC and EPWG websites for future use of the participants and other stakeholders.
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Project Overseers |
Dr. Cynthia P. Celebre will be the Project Overseer. She is the Director of the Research and Development and Training Division of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST). She completed her doctoral degree in Meteorology at the University of the Philippines in 2004 with a dissertation entitled “Numerical Simulation of Sea and Mountain Breezes Over Metro Manila.”
With her thirty (30) years of stay in PAGASA, Dr. Celebre gained both technical and managerial experiences. Being the Head of the Training Division which is the Regional Training Center of RA V under the World Meteorological Organization, she has gained numerous experiences in the organization of local and international fora as the Chair of the Local Organizing Committee. Foremost among these are the Fourth Regional Workshop on Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting (2006), Typhoon Committee Meeting (2009), Southeast Asia Astronomy Network Conference (2009), Asia-Pacific Typhoon Workshop (2010), and 1st ACTS Workshop 2011: Management of Typhoon and Heavy Rainfall-Related Disasters (2011).”
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Cost Efficiency |
The project will obtain maximum use of APEC resources and attain cost-efficiency and savings mainly through co-funding by the Philippines for hosting, publication and distribution, among other costs. Moreover, the host economy will also provide facilities for the course that will help minimize the need to allocate funds to venue and related expenses such as rental fees, refreshments, audiovisual equipment, etc. It is important to mention that the proposed project budget includes a small amount of funds to cover some of these kinds of costs, largely as a contingency strategy.
In addition, the benefits derived from the project can be maximized since the implementation of the project ensures the maximum attendance by appropriate APEC members involved in the assessment of the amount of precipitation brought about by typhoons and heavy rainfall.
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Drawdown Timetable |
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Direct Labour |
Honorarium will be given to volunteer speakers.
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Waivers |
Advance payment is requested to fund travel of participants from eligible economies and speakers upon request (October-November 2011).
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Are there any supporting document attached? |
No
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Attachments
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