Project Title

Identifying Economic Impacts by Mega Disasters Affecting Asia-Pacific Economies 

Project Year

2017   

Project Number

EPWG 02 2017 

Project Session

Session 2   

Project Type

Standard 

Project Status

Project in Implementation   
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Project No.

EPWG 02 2017 

Project Title

Identifying Economic Impacts by Mega Disasters Affecting Asia-Pacific Economies 

Project Status

Project in Implementation 

Publication (if any)

 

Fund Account

General Project Account 

Sub-fund

None 

Project Year

2017 

Project Session

Session 2 

APEC Funding

154,525 

Co-funding Amount

Total Project Value

154,525 

Sponsoring Forum

Emergency Preparedness Working Group (EPWG) 

Topics

Emergency Preparedness 

Committee

SOM Steering Committee on Economic and Technical Cooperation (SCE) 

Other Fora Involved

 

Other Non-APEC Stakeholders Involved

 

Proposing Economy(ies)

Japan 

Co-Sponsoring Economies

Chile; Malaysia; Papua New Guinea; Peru; Philippines 

Expected Start Date

01/01/2018 

Expected Completion Date

31/12/2018 

Project Proponent Name 1

Koji Suzuki (new PO wef 4 April 2018) 

Job Title 1

Executive Director 

Organization 1

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, NIED, Japan 

Postal Address 1

Not Applicable 

Telephone 1

81-78 2625540 

Fax 1

Not Applicable 

Email 1

ks-suzuki@adrc.asia 

Project Proponent Name 2

Not Applicable 

Job Title 2

Not Applicable 

Organization 2

Not Applicable 

Postal Address 2

Not Applicable 

Telephone 2

Not Applicable 

Fax 2

Not Applicable 

Email 2

Not Applcable 

Declaration

Koji Suzuki 

Project Summary

This project aims at identifying potential economic damages by mega disasters, which could affect more than one APEC economies in the future, directly and indirectly through global supply chain. The project includes the following components:

·  organising a workshop in October 2018 in Kobe to discuss potential economic effects on APEC economies by mega disasters including huge tsunami, mega typhoon and so on. Focus is placed on the indirect effects including those through supply chain as well as direct effects by bringing together diverse cases from member economies and the private sector, and  “best practices in policies, regulations and flexibility for resilience for GVC; and

·  identifying key counterparts including those from other fora and the private sector, and intensifying networks to further explore economic impacts of mega disasters over APEC economy and policies to be taken, based on the outcome report of the workshop.

The project is expected to facilitate strengthening public-private partnerships in promoting effective business continuity” including those for MSMEs, as one of the agreed priorities of EPWG.

Relevance

As stated in the APEC Disaster Risk Reduction framework endorsed in 2016, APEC Region, located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, is particularly vulnerable and exposed to disasters, and that the impacts are magnified by the dense population, and expressed concern about the risks of disruption of the increasingly integrated and interlinked production and supply chains by natural disasters.

The APEC workshop “Tsunami Disaster Risk Reduction in APEC economies” held in August 2016, Lima, Peru, identified that a mega tsunami may bring about significant impacts on supply chain and world economy, which needs to be addressed through APEC wide collaboration. DRR against mega disasters such as Tsunami is a challenge facing the region and multi-lateral cooperation is essential.

This project is proposed as a direct tool to implement the Action Plan based on the APEC DRR framework by identifying potential worldwide economic damages that could be brought about by mega disasters such as the Indian Ocean tsunami, Great East Japan Earthquake and other future disasters.

The project closely relates to: “promotion of sustainable, innovate and inclusive growth by creating a new dynamism for effective resource allocation for people and business that have being affected by a hazard” and “enhancing food security and sustainable agriculture in response to climate change”, since agriculture  is one of the sectors that could be most affected in case of disasters.

Also, the 11th APEC Senior Disaster Management Officials Forum (SDMOF) held in Vinh City, Viet Nam in September 2017 stressed to work together to widen the scopes of preventing interruptions caused by natural disasters to business operations[1]

1) This project focusing on economic impacts by natural disasters beyond borders falls under Rank 1 on 2017 APEC Funding Criteria , for the following reasons: 

- it is proposed in order to further promote efforts of: "Emergency preparedness and disaster management including activities relating to the efficient movement of capital, goods, services and people as well as the implementation". 

- it relates directly to "Activities outlined in the Global Value Chains (GVCs) Blueprint" and "Supply Chain Connectivity", since in this project, “movement of capital, goods, services and people will be traced based on evidence, and the cases of natural disasters that could hit one of or more than one APEC economies will be examined and discussed, which will facilitate examining resiliency of supply chain and global value chain. 

2) The project falls also under Rank 2 criteria supporting the APEC Strategy for Strengthening Quality Growth : “Secure Growth” :Strengthening growth security through disaster risk reduction to enhance resilience against natural calamities.”,  and   “Innovative Growth”: Science and technology and ICT approaches in disaster preparedness, risk reduction, response and post-disaster recovery and cooperation in search and rescue


[1] Vinh Joint Recommendations on Science Technology for DRR, September, 2017

Objectives

1) To promote APEC DRR framework and the Action Plan, in particular, for promoting government and business cooperation in a whole of society approach through  networking activities;

2) To enable intensive exchanges via the workshop by sharing with each other diverse views on potential economic impacts and efforts of BCP and to increase supply chain resiliency; and

3) Provide EPWG via the outcome report evidence based knowledge on the potential economic damages that could be brought about by a single mega disaster, and by indirect economic effects of disasters just hitting one economy; and to help to reshape the group’s workplan.

Alignment

Alignment – APEC:  The 2016 AMM Joint Statement, by welcoming the APEC DRR Framework Action Plan, encourages economies to implement the Seven Principles of Supply Chain Resilience, especially business continuity planning, and to promote capacity building, strengthening early warning systems, and search and cooperation for the resilience and livelihood of communities. APEC Disaster Risk Reduction Framework adopted by APEC Leaders in 2015 stresses the essential role of the private sector and importance of collaboration between the public and the private sectors in recognition of their shared responsibility towards disaster resiliency, 

Alignment – Forum: The project is aligned with the priority of workplan 2017, which states that EPWG will align its work with the Viet Nam 2017 priorities, in particular, “Deepening Regional Economic Integration through promoting APEC Connectivity, Supply Chain Connectivity, Region Global Value Chains, and Supporting Industry, requires increasing resilience to avoid disruption of the integrated and interlinked production and supply chains”, which has been a shared concern by EPWG.” And this should remain one of the priorities of EPWG in 2018. In addition, supply chain resiliency as well as addressing mega disasters including tsunami disasters affecting more than one economies will be one of the key elements necessary to update the APEC DRR Action Plan. The strategic plan 2017-2020, has defined as priorities, promotion of” public-private partnerships to develop joint disaster preparedness actions and build up resilience”, and, in particular, promotion of “the development of effective business continuity”. The workshop will help identify “best practices in policies, regulations and flexibility for resilience for GVC, defined in the prioritized implementation schedule. 

TILF/ASF Justification

Not Applicable.

Beneficiaries and Outputs

Outputs: As the output of this project, a workshop will be organised by bringing together government officials working as policy makers  from relevant ministries, in particular, those in charge of economy, agriculture, transport, construction  as well as DRR from APEC economies that have been impacted by mega disasters, experts studying economic impacts of past mega disasters such as Hurricane Catrina  and the private sector.  The major cases of economic impacts APEC economies have seen so far should be highlighted including the typhoon Haiyan in 2013, the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake, the Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami in 2004, the Aitape Tsunami in 1998, the Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake, the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991, the 1985 Mexico Earthquake, the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake, the 1970 Great Peruvian Earthquake, the 1960 Great Chilean Earthquake, for example. Cold waves and forest fires that could impact significantly our economic activities should also be taken into consideration.

Prior to the workshop, a questionnaire survey targeting economies will be undertaken by PO to identify cases worth sharing at the workshop. 

 The workshop will serve as an opportunity of collaborative simulation for participants to anticipate direct and indirect economic impacts as well as of intensive discussion on direct and indirect economic impacts by the type of disasters and situations, efforts to be made by ministries and by sectors, and solutions, in particular, those through APEC wide collaboration.

Due to the rapid evolution of economic activities, production chain and supply chain as well as our life style, disaster impacts could spread more broadly beyond the directly affected areas. The Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923 in Japan, for example, brought about more than  a hundred thousand casualties and more than 30,000 building damages including half collapsed, while it would not be easy to find reports on infrastructure damages, when large infrastructure was yet limited. On the contrary, today’s cities and regions with modern buildings are supported by highly developed large and infrastructure networks and connected with each other. The economic impact could thus be huge, once some areas of the connected networks will be disrupted. Economic damages vary by the stage of economic and urban development. 

As the principal benefit of the workshop, participants will learn diverse patterns of potential damages that could be triggered by natural disasters, which will facilitate policy making more adaptive to the risks they may face in the coming decades.

Finally, a report of the project will be delivered by integrating the inputs provided by the workshop speakers and participants from economies and the result of the discussion based on a summary on the existing studies on economic impacts of major natural disasters affecting APEC economies. That will provide diverse aspects of economic damages and methods of estimation in a wide range of disaster types and situations. That will help economies to study and estimate potential damages of mega-disasters in the future that are unpredictable.

At the end of the workshop, an evaluation sheet will be distributed to the participants for their feedback and the result will be reflected in the report. 

Outcomes: This project is expected to facilitate, in the coming decades, triggering important changes in the attitudes of policy makers and the private sector in anticipating potential economic impacts by natural disasters, in particular, indirect impacts through:

1) Raising  awareness of natural disaster and the potential indirect economic impacts, in particular, those through production and supply chain in addition to direct impacts, by providing an opportunity to examine together diverse cases of economic impacts.

2) Help policy makers in charge of natural disaster reduction policies to make preliminary forecasts/pre-disaster estimation of potential natural disasters damages with closer collaboration with other ministries including those in charge of economy, trade, industries and transport, by sharing the outcome of the workshop.

3) Encourage the private sector’s DRR effort including SMEs and MSMEs by demonstrating cases of indirect economic damages.

4) Increase supply chain resilience by helping the private companies’  identifying weak areas of their practices and supply chain that may lead to significant damages.

5) Facilitate identifying and intensifying key DRR counterparts and promoting public-private partnerships.

6)  Help both public and private sectors justify investments to increase resiliency by presenting cases of economic damages and thus the potential costs of recovery.

7)  Encourage cross border information exchanges and comparison of economic impacts brought about by natural disasters, leading to more closer APEC wide collaboration to face mega disasters affecting world economy. 

Beneficiaries: The workshop intends to provide an opportunity to bridge government sector and the private sector, facing risks of mega disasters such as huge tsunami affecting both sides of the Pacific Ocean and supply chain extending over APEC region, and raise awareness of both governments and private sectors so that they could get more vigilant against potential risks of mega disasters. A huge tsunami, for example, could directly affect PNG, Chile, Peru, Mexico, USA, NZ, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and so on, and bring about worldwide indirect impacts through industrial production and supply chain, while a huge volcano eruption could affect whole APEC region indirectly. In this regards, direct beneficiaries of the project include

-    Whole government authorities in diverse ministries, in particular, those recently disaster hit economies, including those in charge of transport, building and so on   as well as DRR authorities considering mainstreaming of DRR: The project outcome will facilitate their planning and preparing for mega disasters in an evidence based way by learning from how much it costed in which situations, in the cases discussed at the workshop, comparable with the risks facing individual economies;

-   Also those who are in the planning stages of strengthening the DRR governance and BCP in the ministries and relevant organisations, could draw lessons from the cases focused at the workshop;

-    Private sector, in particular, SMEs and MSMEs including the relevant federations, in particular, those led by women from the workshop venue, for example. Hyogo prefecture that was significantly affected by the Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake and have been making maximum efforts to prepare against the Nankai Trough Earthquake and tsunami as well as heavy rainfalls. Locally based DRR practices in Hyogo by involving MSMEs and local women groups could be an important inputs for the workshop and at the same time, the workshop could provide a good opportunity to highlight those efforts made by local women, for example. Their business counterparts are located extensively in diverse APEC economies and their experiences could be applied to private companies in all APEC region and beyond APEC region.

-   In addition, other APEC fora including SMEWG, for example, could benefit from the outputs by working in collaboration with EPWG. 

Long term and Indirect beneficiaries could  extend to the general public, end consumers and whole society, in particular, those rarely be affected directly by  natural disasters by disseminating the outcome at diverse DRR conferences for awareness raising, for example( Through websites of PO as well as APEC and dissemination at diverse awareness raising opportunities in relevant economies . Cases of economic impacts through supply chain to be presented at the workshop could help us anticipate potential impacts we may face in our life and economic activities in the future, leading to wider collaboration.

Dissemination

For dissemination, a highlight summarising major outcome as well as a full version of the workshop report will be produced. Both will be made accessible from APEC Publications Database as the primary platform for distributing the electronic version of the case book. Printed version of the workshop report will be distributed to economies as follows: In addition, printed copies of the highlight will be produced for dissemination at diverse conferences including EPWG, SDMOF, relevant APEC fora, other conferences on DRR, other international organisations working for DRR and development, and ABAC and other private organizations for discussing the next steps of this APEC initiative.

PO well notes that  the dissemination of output via PO website shall be self-funded and will consider the possibility of using APEC social media platform in the endeavor. 

List of organizations for distribution(tbc):

Organisations

EPWG

Member economies

Other

fora

Japan

Chile

Malaysia

PNG

Peru

Philippines

Number of copies

21

4

15

10

10

10

10

10

Gender

Women’s participation is critical to discuss economic impacts of disasters on our life and society and to achieve truly resilient APEC regions. Gender issues remain one of the important aspects to analyse economic impacts of natural disasters, although focus of this project is not placed on it. In the questionnaire addressed to economies, gender aspect will be briefly added as appropriate.  In individual cases presented in the workshop, following points should be well taken into consideration:

1)In analysing industries and supply chain in individual case regions, status of women’s participation, and major roles and challenges will be examined. Many of SMEs and MSMEs may dependant mainly on female workers.

2)Natural disasters will affect our daily life for women, children, babies and elderly. Economic effects including those through supply chain on production of commodities and food, cloth and so on, could be one of the targets of workshop presentation by inviting female speakers, for example.

3)PO will request and encourage economies to achieve 50/50 gender balance in the nomination by clearly requesting it in the invitation,. and make maximum efforts to achieve gender balance in selecting experts and speakers.

4) PO and most of her team members , and PD in charge of this project are women.

Work Plan

This project will be undertaken throughout the year 2018, year of PNG. The theme of the workshop will be elaborated through discussion at two EPWG meetings and progress report of the project will be shared with EPWG members step by step. Final report will be expected to be completed in December 2018. The outcome will be reported at EPWG meeting in February 2019 in Chile (See the table.) 

Phase

Timing

Tasks

Participants

Conceptual discussion

2017 Aug 2018 Jan

Elaborate concept and plan of the project through EPWG

PO team(ADRC)

Project planning

Jan 2018

Preparatory discussion on the theme and key issues

PO team

EPWG counterparts

Discussion at

EPWG- SOM1

Jan-Feb 2018

-Report the overview of the project to EPWG

-questionnaire to economies

-Inputs from EPWG delegates for the concept and key issues to be discussed at the workshop

EPWG delegates, PO team

Project team set-up

Feb.-Mar 2018

-Selection of contractor and key collaborators

-Start up meetings by skype

PO  team with the assistance of APEC secretariat

Preparation of the workshop

Mar –Jul

- Preparation of basic fact sheets on economic impacts, collection of existing reports

 -Preparation of the workshop agenda

-Coordination with EPWG co-chairs and APEC secretariat, host economy of 2018

PO team

Discussion at

EPWG- SOM2

Aug

-Reporting to EPWG about the draft agenda and major issues of discussion

-Requesting nomination for the workshop to economies

EPWG delegates, PO team

Preparation of the workshop

Sep

-practical preparation of the workshop in close collaboration with APEC secretariat

PO  team

Organistion of workshop

Last week of Oct

An APEC Workshop will be held in Kobe.

PO  team

Reporting

Oct - Dec

An APEC report  for publication and the project final report will be compiled

PO and her team, contractor

Final report

Feb 2019

Presentation of the outcome at EPWG

PO team

Risks

Potential risk

Risk-mitigating solution

Similar issues have been studied by academic institutions other international organizations.

At the preparatory phases, preceding researches and reports will be studied and integrated by the  contractor and PO team as much as possible in the meeting material with the assistance of collaborators and inputs from economies. 

Similar themes have been discussed by CTI, TPTWG, for example

Outcome of previous APEC projects and works on supply chain and global value chain should be well examined on the process of the project implementation and possibilities of further cross fora collaboration need to be explored, which is a value added of APEC. 

Due to the diversity of the types of disasters and potential impacts on supply chain by disasters, scoping and selecting the themes and cases could be a challenge, for effectively organizing the one day workshop.

Discussion at EPWG prior to the implementation is expected to facilitate focusing on themes of high policy concern of member economies 

Obtaining sufficient collaboration and information from private companies on potential economic impacts could be a challenge.

PO and her team will try to establish good relationships with the relevant private companies by explaining the purpose and importance of the projects to obtain their collaboration.

Monitoring and Evaluation

Throughout the project implementation period and post-project period, monitoring and evaluation will be undertaken, as follows:

- At the implementation stage, the progress will be reported and examined by EPWG delegates and the feedback will be incorporated into the project implementation

- The workshop is expected to be attended by more than 50 participants including 15 mainly from EPWG counterpart organizations and other relevant ministries from 10 APEC economies, 5 from non-APEC region, 30 from  the conference venue region, and Japan

- At the end of the workshop, an evaluation sheet will be distributed to the participants for their feedback, as referred to in Section B 4 Outputs.)

- The project outcome will be reported to EPWG in February 2019 and the entire report will be made accessible from the Website for evaluation and feedback. At EPWG, delegates will be interviewed for evaluation. 

Regarding potential indicators to measure outcomes, in addition to basic information including number of male/female participants and general questions on satisfaction on each session by economy/gender/public-private, and so on, a qualitative evaluation will be undertaken, which will facilitate discussion on how to further explore the next steps. Major questions could relate to scope of indirect effects, method of economic loss evaluation, difficulties in evaluating supply chain effects by type of disasters, future steps, and so on. Focus will also be placed on the effects on vulnerable people, elderly and women. The access to the report on the web will be monitored as a quantitative performance indicator. Both will be reported back to EPWG.

Linkages

This project exploring direct and indirect economic impacts through supply chains is based on the previous works undertaken by EPWG and other groups including CTI and TPTWG on global value chain and supply chain. EPWG has been working with close contact with these group through cross fora collaboration. A project spotlighting directly economic impacts of mega disasters affecting more than one economy has however not been organized so far. The outcome of this project is expected to be additional inputs for the APEC wide future discussion.

Other organisations including the World Bank, OECD and many other research institutes have been addressing calculation of disaster damage and loss data, which will be studied by PO’s team and the contractor in preparing the workshop and  used as important inputs for discussion, however, this project does not intend to discuss in detail disaster damage and loss calculation methods. The important added values of APEC include the clear focus on supply chain and global value chain, supported through the close collaboration with the private sector including SMEs and MSMEs, as well as collaboration and networks of the economies located at the Pacific Ring of Fire. This project is to identify, by organizing a workshop, the present challenges facing industries as well as governments located in cities and rural areas connected more closely with each other that are experiencing rapid growth and changes. APEC has a comparative advantage in bringing together relevant authorities and participants from the private sector.

Sustainability

Cases of economic impact estimation and the outcome of the discussion at the workshop will be shared and disseminated widely among economies by taking opportunities of diverse international conferences including the Asian Conference for Disaster Reduction by ADRC as well as APEC meetings.

In addition, once APEC economies will be affected by natural disasters, the outcome report could be used as knowledge base to look for similar cases facilitating anticipating the impacts. It could also help governments and private sectors to know globally potential economic impacts of natural disasters in the future, for which decision makers are exploring policies measures.

By organizing this workshop, EPWG could accumulate cases of economic impact by natural disasters in the future affecting participating economies, which will help EPWG to intensify its hub role for policy makers by identifying colleagues directly in charge of studying economic impacts, counter parts in other relevant ministries, and the private sectors in individual economies sharing the similar concern, which will be supported by PO and ADRC. Further, with the outcome of this first stage of the project, the second stage project could be proposed by PO and the co-sponsoring economies the scope of which will be widened to address diverse cases such as climate induced disasters affecting many economies recently. 

Our focal points of the DRR networks are basically EPWG counterpart organisations, but we expect that this project will facilitate identifying :

·   colleagues directly in charge of studying economic impacts including supply chain resiliency, for example, in addition to general EPWG counterparts;

·   counterparts in other relevant ministries, in addition to DRR ministries; and

.  private sectors in individual economies sharing the similar concern, not just representatives of the private sector organisations.

Project Overseers

This project will be undertaken by Asian Disaster Reduction Center, ADRC based in Kobe Japan, in close collaboration with Cabinet Office, Japan, and five co-sponsoring economies. ADRC has 30 members in Asia including 10 APEC economies, and close contacts with DRR ministries in Asia. Kyoko KONDO (Executive Director, and Co-chair of EPWG for 2016-2017) will take the role of project overseer with her ARDC team. ADRC headed by Ms. Kondo has implemented an APEC project as PO in 2016 “EPWG 01 2016 – Enhancing Rural Disaster Resilience through Effective Infrastructure Investment”.

The previous contribution by ADRC to APEC projects on BCP include:

- “2011 "BCP Status of the Private Sector in the APEC Region” APEC EPWG project aiming at promoting best practices in private sector emergency preparedness and adoption of BCP for APEC economies

- 2012 “BCP Status of the SMEs in the Asia-Pacific Region”

- 2013“Guidebook on SME Business Continuity Planning” APEC SMEWG Project on Improving Natural Disaster Resilience of SMEs

The headquarters of ADRC is located in Kobe City, Hyogo prefecture that was devastated by the Great Hanshin Awaji Earthquake in 1995. ADRC has been closely collaborating with the prefecture, which has contributed proactively to DRR international collaboration.

Cost Efficiency

Not Applicable.

Drawdown Timetable

Not Applicable.

Direct Labour

As per GB 9-11 all direct labour should be contracted out as one single package for administrative and management efficiencies, however, main contractor could be based in outside Japan, which is the workshop venue, just to facilitate practical preparation of the workshop, another local contractor is necessary.

Waivers

Not Applicable.

Are there any supporting document attached?

No 
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Project No.

Project Title

Project Status

Publication (if any)

Fund Account

Sub-fund

Project Year

Project Session

APEC Funding

Co-funding Amount

Total Project Value

Sponsoring Forum

Topics

Committee

Other Fora Involved

Other Non-APEC Stakeholders Involved

Proposing Economy(ies)

Co-Sponsoring Economies

Expected Start Date

Expected Completion Date

Project Proponent Name 1

Job Title 1

Organization 1

Postal Address 1

Telephone 1

Fax 1

Email 1

Project Proponent Name 2

Job Title 2

Organization 2

Postal Address 2

Telephone 2

Fax 2

Email 2

Declaration

Project Summary

Relevance

Objectives

Alignment

TILF/ASF Justification

Beneficiaries and Outputs

Dissemination

Gender

Work Plan

Risks

Monitoring and Evaluation

Linkages

Sustainability

Project Overseers

Cost Efficiency

Drawdown Timetable

Direct Labour

Waivers

Are there any supporting document attached?

hdFldAdmin

Project Number

Previous Fora

Secretariat Comments

Reprogramming Notes

Consolidated QAF

Endorsement By Fora

PD Sign Off

Batch

Forum Priority

Committee Ranking Category

Committee Priority

PDM Priority

Priority Within Funding Category

Monitoring Report Received

Completion Report Received

PMU Field 1

PMU Field 2

PMU Field 3

On Behalf Of

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